Asked by Slashman 26 months ago

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I personally think that the earth is in a warming trend which is a small part of an over all cooling trend as the earth heads into the next ice age - what do you think? Man-made or natural?


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"Mankind is not currently able to have any significant effect on climate. "

 by Willette on Dec 06 2007 (26 months ago)
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But he sure could waste a lot of time, money and effort trying.

Some form of the graph below is probably what persuades most laymen that increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes global warming.  But what does it really tell us?

SOURCE: Eye-opener on Global Warming

1) This graph does not prove causation.  It could equally be said to prove that "global warming" causes increased atmospheric CO2.  It could also be that both are caused by some other factor or factors.

2) The temperature anomaly (amount of "global warming") did not increase between 1960 and 1978.  In fact, during that period, it would have been called "global cooling".  But Atmospheric CO2 rose from 320 ppm to almost 340 ppm. 

3) The temperature anomaly peaked in 1998 (ten years ago!), yet atmospheric CO2 continued to rise.

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CO2 is not the major "greenhouse gas".  Water vapor is the most effective and by far most abundant "greenhouse gas", accounting for about 95% of the greenhouse effect, and it is 99.999% of natural origin.



There are LESS THAN 400 parts per million in our atmosphere.  That is not much. 
Not only that, but the great majority of carbon dioxide is NOT man made.



Source of two above graphs: Global Warming: A Closer Look At the Numbers

In short, global warming, such as it is, is NOT caused by man or by carbon dioxide.
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It’s not even certain how much atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased.  Scientists were directly measuring CO2 concentration all during the 19th century, as shown below.


SOURCE: http://www.john-daly.com/zjiceco2.htm

When you remember that atmospheric CO2 concentration today is below 380 ppm, maybe there really has NOT been a big increase.

Today, scientists use microscopic air bubbles trapped in ice cores to estimate past CO2 concentrations, which gives a lower estimate for the 19th century.  However, this method has many possible flaws.  According to Professor Jaworowski, this results in:
False Low Pre-industrial CO2 in the Atmosphere

Determinations of CO2 in polar ice cores are commonly used for estimations of the pre-industrial CO2 atmospheric levels. Perusal of these determinations convinced me that glaciological studies are not able to provide a reliable reconstruction of CO2 concentrations in the ancient atmosphere. This is because the ice cores do not fulfill the essential closed system criteria. One of them is a lack of liquid water in ice, which could dramatically change the chemical composition the air bubbles trapped between the ice crystals. This criterion, is not met, as even the coldest Antarctic ice (down to -73°C) contains liquid water[2]. More than 20 physico-chemical processes, mostly related to the presence of liquid water, contribute to the alteration of the original chemical composition of the air inclusions in polar ice[3].


SOURCE: Climate Change: Incorrect information on pre-industrial CO2
Statement written for the US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation   March 2004

Statement of Prof. Zbigniew Jaworowski
Chairman, Scientific Council of Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection
Warsaw, Poland


See also  CO2: The Greatest Scientific Scandal of Our Time

CONCLUSION: Let’s quit wasting our time demonizing carbon, and hold the global warming panic until we really know the cause of temperature fluctuations.  There is also credible evidence that earthly temperature changes are synchronized with and caused by changes in solar radiation rather than changes in atmospheric composition.

-The truth about global warming - it’s the Sun that’s to blame


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"It's Nature"

 by Pales on Dec 06 2007 (26 months ago)
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The earth has cooled & warmed since it was formed and much of this occurred before humans entered the picture.  Humans are relative newcomers and missed most of these cooling and warming cycles; therefore, humans could not be blamed.  Greenhouse gases, SUVs & all that rot are even more recent newcomers and again they were not around to take the blame for the earth's natural cycles.

 

When Algore or his minions can explain to me the cause of the earths cooling & warming in the time before humans, greenhouse gases, SUVs, & the rest of the usual rot, I will not blame humans for anything.

 

However, my view is  not to be taken as an excuse to pollute.   I would still like to meet the scum-sucking, bottom-feeding, low-life, that had the hospital waste dumped in the ocean and the waste ended up on NYC beaches, closing the beaches during my visit. 

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"Not Man-Made"

 by j_bax on Dec 06 2007 (26 months ago)
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OK, so I'm going to get blasted for this, but I don't think Global Warming is a man-made phenomenon.  We know so little of the temperature trends of the earth.  We've only been keeping track for a few years with any kind of accuracy.  Even in those few years we can see warming and cooling trends.  30 or 40 years of warming is nothing in the history of the earth. 

 

As far as a future ice-age goes, I don't know.  It could be.  It's something to think about.

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"Man Made"

 by Hejenemy on Dec 06 2007 (26 months ago)
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I think that there is PLENTY of research and documentation showing that global warming is indisputably a man made event.

 

Think about it, in the last 200 years we've gone from less than 1 billion people worldwide to almost 7 billion. That's going to have major consequences, and it's only going to get worse as over-population escalates.

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"Its...."

 by marke on Dec 06 2007 (26 months ago)
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both... isn't man also nature?

Reminds me of when people point to the sky to identify a "god"... if God is everything, there is nothing that is not God, including you and me and nature and...

Another question could be if man is part of nature, why does man seem determined to destroy itself - if that is what's happening and not some "cosmic" evoutionary plan or spiritual leap...??
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Latest post on this question's discussion board:

marke, I would agree with you on many of the issues of conservation that you allude to. Man may be responsible for a lot of environmental harm but I don't think that changing the earth's climate by burning fuel is one of them. Somehow the "Environmentalist Movement" seems to have gathered all who have concern for any environmental issues and made Global Warming the proxy issue for them all. And then, in a kind of inverted logic, they encourage people to think that all other environmental problems are somehow or other caused by Global Warming. This is tragic, because it is perhaps the ONE thing that we really cannot do anything about except to adapt to climate changes as they occur.
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